{"id":3686,"date":"2019-08-01T12:51:20","date_gmt":"2019-08-01T12:51:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vricmonitor.org\/july-august-2019\/"},"modified":"2024-08-21T17:08:31","modified_gmt":"2024-08-21T17:08:31","slug":"july-august-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vric.securefreesociety.org\/es\/july-august-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"JULY & AUGUST 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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On July 9th, the head of the Pentagon\u2019s Southern Command, Admiral Craig Faller, provided testimony to the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities warning of the collective threat of Russia, Iran, and China in Latin America, especially in Venezuela. In his testimony, Admiral Faller encapsulates the challenge in Latin America posed by VRIC nations in his opening statement:<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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\u201cThe most disturbing insight, however, has been the degree to which External State Actors (ESAs)\u2014China, Russia, and to a lesser extent, Iran, and North Korea\u2014have expanded their access and influence in our neighborhood. Each actor engages in a wide array of concerning, potentially destabilizing activities, blurring the lines of what constitutes a traditional \u201cmilitary threat\u201d through economic coercion, the systematic stealing of technology, pernicious disinformation campaigns, and malicious cyber activity.\u201d<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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The VRIC monitor demonstrates Adm. Faller\u2019s point well. This summer has seen Russia continuously propagandize the Venezuela crisis, Iran\u2019s increased diplomatic engagement with the ALBA bloc, and China\u2019s \u201ceconomic coercion\u201d through infrastructure deals that blur its military footprint in the region. Moreover, the VRIC is quietly and gradually advancing on critical infrastructure projects in South America, to include the bi-oceanic railway between Peru, Bolivia, and Brazil, and nuclear cooperation with Bolivia and Argentina.<\/p>

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The ongoing crisis in Venezuela provides an opportunity for VRIC nations, namely Iran and Russia, to increase its diplomatic and military cooperation with the Maduro regime. A point that the U.S. Congress is increasingly paying attention to. Florida Senator Rick Scott outlined the VRIC challenge in June through both a CNBC op\/ed and a speech at the Atlantic Council, stating:<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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\u201cChina continues to prop up the Maduro regime, along with Cuba, Russia and Iran. Why? It\u2019s pretty simple. Venezuela, before the tyranny of Hugo Chavez and Maduro, was an economic hub with huge reserves of oil and other natural resources. It can become that again and China wants in on the ground floor.\u201d<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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July showcased Venezuela at the center of an international front of so-called \u201cresistance countries\u201d as the VRIC promoted the Non-Aligned Movement summit and the 25th Foro de S\u00e3o Paulo Forum in Caracas. Meanwhile, military cooperation between Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, seems to be on the rise, as evidenced by joint military games held in Moscow in early August and joint calls by their respective national security advisors to increase international support for Maduro. Across the Caribbean, Nicaragua approved the entry of 160 Russian troops to train with their armed forces, namely the communications corps Blanca Stella Arauz Pineda, and the Nicaraguan Army\u2019s Search-and-Rescue (SAR) unit and special operations command.<\/p>

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The coming election cycle in South America is critical for VRIC regional influence. The potential re-election of Evo Morales in Bolivia and the possible return to power of Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner in Argentina will provide the VRIC tremendous momentum heading into 2020. The recent election primary results in Argentina suggest this opportunity may become a reality.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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The Trump administration has increased the economic pressure against the Maduro regime, who is increasingly turning to its VRIC allies for strategic support. Russia is aiding Venezuela\u2019s illicit gold trade by providing airliners to export the gold, which finds its way to a Ugandan refinery before vanishing. Iran\u2019s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif recently visited Venezuela in mid-July for the Non-Aligned Movement summit in the midst of heightened tensions with the United Kingdom and the United States. The three countries (Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) recently engaged in a military tank \u201cbiathlon\u201d<\/em> competition in Moscow that some analysts call \u201cthe blending of sport, warfare, soft power, and spectacle.\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/p>

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Meanwhile, Nicol\u00e1s Maduro recently withdrew from failed negotiations in Barbados\u00a0after the U.S. issued new sanctions blocking any U.S. person or entity from doing business with the Maduro regime. This comes after a serious\u00a0provocation\u00a0when the Venezuelan Air Force \u201caggressively shadowed\u201d a U.S. intelligence aircraft performing a reconnaissance mission off the Caribbean coast.\u00a0

The crisis in Venezuela is gradually growing in international scope reflected by the\u00a059 nations<\/a> that sent delegations to the August 6th Lima Group meeting in Peru, to include Morocco, Israel, and South Korea. Boasting his own regional alliance, the Maduro regime spent at least $200 million to host his allies in Caracas in late July for the 25th Foro de S\u00e3o Paulo (FSP) Forum, a gathering of Communist, Marxist, and Socialist political parties from throughout Latin America.<\/p>

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Among the many goals of the FSP, as stated in its\u00a0official declaration<\/a>, is the reelection of Evo Morales in Bolivia and the return to power of Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner in Argentina. The results of the Argentine election primary in August heavily favored Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez, whose running mate is the former president Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner, while Evo Morales leads his closest opposition candidate in Bolivia by 11 points. The Argentina election, along with that of Uruguay, will be held on October 27th and the Bolivia election earlier on October 20th.\u00a0<\/p>

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This election period in South America is pivotal as several countries in the continent plunge into a political crisis. Paraguay was recently engulfed in a political storm over a secret energy deal with Brazil, which almost resulted in the impeachment of its president. Peru\u2019s president has called on its Congress to advance elections to next year. Hanging in the balance, Bolivia\u2019s Evo Morales seeks to capitalize on this political instability by making headway on the Port of Ilo project with Peru, and a new binational cabinet with Paraguay. This strategic alliance between Peru-Bolivia-Paraguay is aimed at building a bi-oceanic railway and waterway connecting the Atlantic to the Pacific.\u00a0<\/p>

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VENEZUELA AID TRACKER<\/strong><\/p>
\u00a0United States<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\u00a0$76 million dollars<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0Argentina<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a0Help unit<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0Canada<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a0$39 million dollars<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0Chile<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a017 tons of food & medical supplies<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0China<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a0200 tons of medicine & supplies<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0Cuba<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a0Medical aid to transplant patients<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0EU<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a0\u20ac65 million euros<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0Germany<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a0\u20ac5 million euros<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0Iran<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a0Unspecified pledge & medical aid<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0Italy<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a0\u20ac2 million euros & medical aid to transplant patients\u00a0 \u00a0<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0New Zealand<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a0$500,000 dollars<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0Palestine<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a0Surgical team<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0Russia<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a0335 tons of food & medical supplies<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0Spain<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a0\u20ac2 million euros<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0Sweden<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a0$7 million dollars<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0Taiwan<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a0$500,000 dollars<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0Turkey<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a0Medical aid to transplant patients<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0UAE<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a0Dh10 million<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
\u00a0UK<\/a><\/strong><\/td>\u00a0\u00a36.5 million pounds<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>